Well, I will tell you.  Another month has scurried by without sufficient time to create a solid ‘print’ based posting.  You are likely thinking, come on how hard can it really be to scratch out 750-1000 words.  The answer based on the collective times I do that everyday, is not that hard.  However, it is time consuming and more importantly I want to make that verbiage useful, informative, educational, etc.  So after spending hours each day creating print as part of the work routine, it becomes sort of difficult to shake off the cob webs and bring something fresh and thought provoking to you.

The next question becomes, where do we go from here then?  Simple, a new test.  I don’t know how many times during the course of a month I run across an article or have an idea with some base thoughts around it.  So instead of trying to crunch out a full posting in type, why not create a quick audio posting that gives you those same 750 to 1000 words.  Then on the blog itself also give you some brief notes and links that might make the whole thing come together.  So September will be the test bed for this format, and for all I know it will be even more complicated and take longer.  However given the level of activity my spell checker has been getting lately I think we will all be better off.

Absolutely nothing really, okay maybe not nothing.  I’ve been wondering over the last day or so what it might be like to have a large period of time to devote to an alternate topic or activity.  Not something that is a career or life change, but a short term focus that allows a deep exploration into something new or interesting.  Again you are saying, where are you going with this? Oh, just wondering what 6 months of focused time might allow with WSIC?  These sort of thoughts can cross one’s mind after a month that allowed absolutely zero time for anything but addressing the fires of the moment, as you can probably tell by the lack of posts this month.

Now the only silver lining in all this is the next post was to be a follow up on the topic of the Gulf Oil Disaster, which was suppose to post AFTER there was a permanent fix in place for the leak.  So let’s hope the plan to put that fix in place this coming week occurs so we can focus on the recovery, both short and long term, from this tragedy.

On another front, now that July is coming to an end it is time to announce the WSIC readers’ Tropical Cyclone prediction for 2010.  The winning range was for 20-21 named storms, and given that we only have two so far this year, reaching that total is no small order.  What is also interesting is that over 2/3 of the votes were between 20 and 25, so it looks like the general feeling is for a very active season.  Hopefully next week when Tropical Storm Colin forms (its going to happen, really) we will kick off a busy core season so that the readers will be proven right.

Before we get to deep the cyclone part of the phrase, it is probably best to touch on the ‘tropics’ portion. Marked by the part of the planet where the sun transverses overhead at some point on our annual orbit, this area of the earth is governed by weather behavior that much of the populated world may not be familiar with. For those who live in the mid and high latitudes and are use to terms like cold and warm fronts, you really need to put on a different hat when thinking about tropical weather. While there are whole courses taught on this topic, you can get a nice intro here. In short though, probably the two most important things to remember is we tend not to see the temperature gradients from north to south that we see at higher latitudes, and the tropics don’t benefit from the spin of earth as much to get this spinning.

Moving onto ‘cyclones’ portion of our phrase. Most folks are use to those in some form or another, whether it be through terms like hurricane or tornado just seeing the formation of one in a sink as it drains. The key is the spin. For those use to mid-latitude weather this may conjure up maps with a big L with some warm and cold front lines attached to it, but in the tropics it is a bit different. Without the temperature differences or earth’s rotation to help these areas of ‘spin’ are much less common. They are also unique in that they are warmer closest to their center which is why they are generally strongest closest to their core. But what constitutes an actual ‘tropical cyclone’ can get a bit tricky.

Let’s look at the generally accepted definition – “A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.” Now that is a mouthful, but some of those pieces are a bit easier to deal with. Actually right up until the word ‘with’ we can generally measure today with satellites and other technologies easily enough. But after that we run into some problems in both subjectivity and measurement. For instance what does ‘deep convection’ or ‘well-defined center’ really mean, or how does one confirm a ‘closed surface circulation’ when these things are quite often occurring out in the middle of the ocean. In short, it really is not that easy and even with the latest technologies it is often the judgment call of a forecaster to label something a ‘tropical cyclone’ or not.

So let’s try a little case study. Below are 3 satellite images in a row, each is the case of an area of weather labeled with at least a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours by the National Hurricane Center within the 12 months. The next row is the same area of weather 24 hours later.

One of these would become a tropical storm, another was deemed a tropical depression (a weak tropical cyclone) that then dissipated within another day, and the last would ultimately never become a tropical cyclone. Can you tell which is which? In the end a person decided which is which and it is possible that with different human perspectives involved we could have ended up with 1 2 or 3 tropical cyclones.

Now at first glance you might think why does it matter, when these cyclones get started they are weak and what is one more or less. Well the reality is that it is important for both scientist and you. A particular challenge science still grapples with is why certain disturbances like those pictured above turn into tropical cyclones and others don’t. This impacts how forecast models are developed and overall how well tropical cyclone formation can be predicted. So if a forecast is deemed inaccurate because an area of weather was or was not called a ‘tropical cyclone’, a model might be judged not as accurate depending on what it predicted. But in reality it may have forecasted it correctly even if a human did not see it the same way another human might have.

Ok, so now you are thinking this is just ubergeeky weather type stuff. Let me give you an example of how it impacts you. Things you buy every day are changed in price by predictions of tropical cyclones, sometimes in the very short term like the price of gasoline spiking when a tropical cyclone heads toward the Gulf of Mexico, but quite often in ways you do not see. Everywhere around the world that is impacted by tropical cyclones has risk adjustments on their insurance or areas that drive their cost of doing business, and that price indeed gets passed on to you. Think about all the wonderful things we get not only from the tropics (fruits, crops, oil, etc.) but also in areas where these systems can ultimately go which includes latitudes well outside the tropics. These adjustments are made based on projections, projections that can include estimations on the number of tropical cyclones in different parts of the world. Uncertainty or inaccuracy in past data can lead to projections that must account for more risk potential and uncertainty, and down the line that usually will translate into higher costs for you.

So in the end this subjective definition impacts geeky science types and your wallet!

Next time we will take up a reader suggested topic – What is the real cost of energy? With oil continuing to make a mess of things along the US Gulf Coast, it makes one wonder how dependent we would still be on carbon based fuels if we factored in the repercussions of such events into the total cost we pay for energy. Until then – learn, think and grow!

Let’s quickly breakdown the numbers.  Here are the projected ranges for the number of named storms from the different prediction groups:

When you want to determine how intense or how strong a hurricane season was, there are many ways you can calculate it.  An obvious place to start would be summing the intensity of the individual tropical cyclones in that season.  When a cyclone is defined as a tropical storm or a hurricane by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), it is given a ranking on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHS).  It can be a TS (tropical storm) or a category 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5, with 5 having the strongest winds .  Category 5’s that we can remember well would be Hurricane Andrew of 1992, or Katrina of 2005 (although I should note, Katrina was a Category 3 when it made landfall).  When we take a step back and look at the number of strong hurricanes in a given season, we begin to get an idea of how bad that particular season was.  That is, until we dig in a little deeper.

Naturally, one asks at this point “why does that matter?”  It’s a really good question, and it’s one that I’m trying to investigate.

Hurricane Andrew (top) and Hurricane Ike (bottom) before their respective landfalls. Andrew was 300 miles wide and a Cat 5, and it did 41.1 billion (2010) USD in damage when it made landfall in Miami, FL. Hurricane Ike got as large as 480 miles wide and was a Cat 2, and damages totaled 38 billion (2010) USD. Of all U.S. landfalling hurricanes that we have data for, Andrew was the second costliest and Ike was the third, even though Andrew’s landfall wind speeds were 165mph versus Ike's 110mph.

Let’s use an example.  Hurricane Ike of 2008 was a moderately intense hurricane.  When it made landfall on the Texas coastline, it was a Category 2 on the SSHS.  This means it had a maximum wind speed somewhere in the hurricane of at least 96 mph (154 kph)¹.  That’s nothing to sneeze at, especially when you’re living on the coastline that’s in the way.  However, it’s definitely not the strongest storm that coastline has ever seen.  So why did Ike do $38 billion in damage, and why does it rank 3rd in costliest U.S. landfalling hurricanes?¹ There are many variables that go into what makes a hurricane a “very costly” hurricane, but I’m going to argue that one in particular had a pretty large influence: size.

When Hurricane Ike approached the Caribbean, it was a Category 4 hurricane.  It slammed into Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and then washed over Cuba.  The affect of making multiple landfalls on these islands was that the hurricane decreased in intensity.  But it did something else – it increased its size.  Meaning, when you looked at the storm for instance in  a satellite image, it got bigger; it took up more space.  So when the storm began to strengthen again into a Category 2 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico, it was not only stronger, but those strong winds covered much more area.

So when we look at how strong a hurricane season was, it is my suggestion that we not only look at how strong the winds were, or how long it lasted, but we take into account how big it was.  There are currently 2 ways of measuring the intensity of the seasons over time, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index (ACE)² and the Power Dissipation Index (PDI)³.  Both of these calculations take into account maximum wind speed and the duration of the storm, however, neither include size.  There’s a third way of doing it, called Integrated Kinetic Energy, or IKE^4,5.  The IKE of a storm uses three things: maximum wind speed, duration, and size.  Using this index rather than the conventional ACE or PDI gives us better insight into

So if you ever hear on the news that one hurricane season was worse than another, or that hurricanes are getting stronger or weaker over time, I encourage you to ask the question “how did they measure that?”  Chances are, since IKE is a relatively new method of making this determination, they didn’t include size.  Which, I would argue, matters.

Simple really, our planet does an excellent job of transporting event outcomes over very large scales. Whether it is volcanic ash spread in the atmopshere from Iceland over the Atlantic and over most of Europe, a tsunami forming off the coast of Chile sending killer waves across all regions of the Pacific, or carbon dioxide from all over the globe mixing in the atmosphere over Hawaii, each of these events demonstrate different ways of how things that occur near you impact others far away. Or, the reverse of that, things occurring very far removed from where you are impacting your location. 

Eyjafjallajokull erupts and electrifies

In the case of this volcanic eruption, most folks when they heard probably thought about the people of Iceland and how it might be impacting them. However for anyone around the globe that had travel plans to or from Europe, this event would soon loom large over their heads as well. The danger of the glass-like ash that was spreading through the levels of the atmosphere commonly used by commercial airplanes would essentially shut down European airspace for days. When all is said and done I am sure we will here estimates in the billions of dollars of economic impact this event had, with estimates for the airline industry alone already over 1.7 billion. 

Now us weather/climate geeks were looking at this eruption from a whole different perspective. Any time there is a major volcanic eruption, analysis is usually done to examine how wide spread and how high the ash plume travels. The reason being is that the sulfur dioxide content when it reaches the stratosphere typically become sulfuric acid based aerosols that actually work very well at reflecting the suns energy and in turn can lead to a temporary cooling of the planet (NASA has a good brief write-up here on the topic). What is particularly interesting about the effectiveness of major eruptions at cooling the planet, is that it has been proposed on multiple occasions that we should deliberatiely act like a volcano in an effort to cool the planet (good thorough example here). A reminder that sometimes the major impacts can actually be positive. 

No matter what your angle may be in looking at this event, it serves as an excellent reminder that a seemingly distant event can bring major change your way. Sometimes the change can be small, other times large, sometimes slow to occur, other times sudden. Whatever the case it sends some basic reminders for all of us to think about: 

1. Learn to adapt – no matter what change might be coming your way, change will indeed come
2. Be flexible – plans may change, plans may fall through, not being rigid will make dealing with it easier
3. Think before acting – that’s right, what you do impacts other, an act can seem small yet the effects atsronomical

May will be hurricane month here at WSIC. We will have a couple of posts related to tropical cyclones as early estimates for this North Atlantic hurricane season predict a very active year. Until then!

This has been a common question for me over the last few weeks.  For anyone who knows what I do, they all want to know if somehow weather or climate change is to some degree related to the rash of very strong earthquakes we have seen around the globe.  Quickly I assure them this is not the case and try to do so without delving too deeply into the realm of thermodynamics because I get lost enough on that topic without any help.  But of course prompted these inquiries prompted some questions in my mind like:

Is this Earthquake Weather?

But if that is true, what would make one think there was a connection.  For most of the people that I have talked with, it has been mostly a passing memory that most earthquake activity has taken place in the transition seasons of spring and fall.  For the majority of this group there was a belief that somehow the warming / cooling of the seasons was creating conditions more conducive to earthquakes.  On the surface this may seem logical enough as most of us have witnessed how cooling / warming a surface can shrink / loosen things.  However the transport of surface temperatures into the planet, especially to the depth to influence earthquakes, could not occur on the time scales of days to weeks.  Actually if any source has a temperature influence on the earth’s plate activity it is more likely underneath the earth’s crust in the core where temperatures exist in the range of 5000 – 6000 degrees Celsius.

Well, there are a variety of reasons this may be the case – limited time, what folks are use to, keeping things simple, etc. And let’s be realistic, most folks don’t want to have to spend 30+ minutes trying to comprehend whether it will rain tomorrow or how warm it will be, that is why we have meteorologist – to make a best estimate. Now, your logical next question might be – ‘why do they have to estimate at all?’ Ah ha! That is the key question, and if the answer were simple then maybe it would not be the key question.

In most areas of science, just like most of the other realms around us, things are seldom certain. Whether it is a weather forecast or a report about a new ‘scientific finding’, while often presented as certainty, it is most often a best projection based on our current understanding. Some of the reasons for this uncertainty include:

• Sensitivity of calculations used in prediction to small fluctuations
• Lack of sufficient data in time or space domains
• Imprecise equations to represent the behaviors
• Incomplete understanding of the criteria that drive a situation

Example of forecast ranges instead of a specific value

Remember last year when we were discussing tropical cyclone forecasts and how the forecasts where in ranges not a specific number (see the picture to the right as reminder). Well all those items I mentioned above influence why we can’t reasonably predict a single value, and why even the ranges are sometimes incorrect. So now that you have seen that there is indeed a man behind the curtain and the great Oz is not real, what does it mean for you?

Simple really, when considering a forecast or projection of weather, climate, or other science, treat it like you would any forecast that impacts your life (economic, financial, health, etc.). Particularly for weather and climate when evaluating how it will impact you and/or your organization you need to place it in the context of two fundamental criteria:

1. What is your level of sensitivity to what is being forecasted?
2. What is the degree of uncertainty in the forecast?

The good news on the first question is that usually determining the answer is in your hands. How will the ‘potential’ of rain impact your day tomorrow, or how a hot summer ‘might’ influence your business? Coming up with the answer can take some time if more complex, but hopefully the data to some degree is in your control.

The second question can be a bit more difficult for you to get an answer to, but that is why the answer to the first question can potentially narrow the cases down where getting an answer to the second question becomes necessary. For example if you will be working tomorrow inside, what does it really matter if it rains while you are at the office? But when the information is critical to you and could influence your decision making it becomes important to understand the level of confidence you can place in that information.

For a weather forecast, you might read a forecast discussion (sample) at the National Weather Service to get a bit more detail behind the forecast and the level of certainty in a prediction. For a report about a scientific finding that could impact your business, get a copy of the actual study and read it. The more influence the forecast could have, the more time you should spend making sure you really understand the degree of certainty or uncertainty underlying the forecast. It may not always be a trivial exercise to get the information or comprehend it, but usually with a little effort you can greatly increase your understanding of the uncertainty and accordingly make better decisions.

Interested in learning some more about this topic? There is a book that you can read for free online called ‘Completing the Forecast‘. It talks about effectively communicating the uncertainty in weather and climate forecasts and covers in more detail the topics introduced here today.

Until next time!

Thankfully I do not know, but being roughly 200 miles away was close enough.  Actually, I had not planned to discuss this topic but since major shaking struck again (zone of squiggly icons SW of Santiago in the graphic) as I was working on an alternate post yesterday, it seemed as I was being jolted for a reason.

Living in Santiago for many years now, one gets use to occasional tremors and generally speaking they are not strong enough to greatly influence your behavior.  However, in the early morning hours of February 27th that changed.  I was awakened as the bed moved (and yes I usually sleep through them), but unlike most this shake kept going and getting stronger.  It being in the middle of the night, it was not until looking at the alarm clock that the power outage was confirmed.  A quick look around the house inside and out revealed no serious damage, but not exactly something you go right back to sleep after.  However, without power there was no easy way to get more info on the quake right away.

Finding out a bit later in the morning that it was an 8.8 magnitude earthquake and had struck just offshore (the star location) made my mind start racing.  How bad was it closer to the epicenter (Concepcion is the green circle only 60 miles away)?  Was there a tsunami?  What would the aftershocks be like?  And of course, were friends and colleagues ok? Without power or phones I suddenly felt completely unable to address any of these issues, so attention turns to the basics – do I have water, food, gas and batteries, thankfully yes.  The next few days would reveal so much, and while I was fortunate enough to not lose anything meaningful, others weren’t so lucky.

Now to convey important, interesting and even bizarre tidbits that have forever ingrained themselves into my long-term memory banks.

Trying to explain nerdy science stuff to non nerdy friends and family

• Why is this Richter scale so confusing even if it is logical to nerdy folks – agreed when you try to comprehend that an 8.8 magnitude earthquake is 500 times more powerful than the 7.0 earthquake that struck Haiti – I recommend the Modified Mercalli scale to help translate impacts to more logical terms – which takes into account other variables like depth and position to create shake maps like this one
• What is a Subduction Zone and what does it have to do with Chile earthquakes, volcanoes and even the Andes mountains
• Why does a tsunami form from an earthquake and why does it travel around the world

What it feels like on my own personal scale

• Mild quakes remind me of being in a building when a large vehicle or train goes by, or being on a bridge as a large vehicle or multiple vehicles pass by
• Medium quakes take on two different qualities, they last longer and therefore cause you to really take notice, and often are a bit less rhythmic like a washing machine that gets out of balance.  It might feel like driving on a gravel road with sporadic potholes or driving over multiple sets of train tracks
• Strong quakes take on a level of intensity and uncertainty that is like being tossed around in a large wooden roller coaster or experiencing a long stretch of strong turbulence on an airplane.  The biggest difference from both of these is that usually you have enough time to get outside and realize that everything is moving (not just the man made structure) and you don’t know when it will stop (very disturbing)
• Severe quakes, don’t know personally and hope I never do

What was surreal

• Finding power in another part of the city and finally making contact with family and friends via cell phones, email, facebook, twitter and linkedin while it seems business as usual in this Dunkin Donuts
• Finding an open store with 50+ check out lines stacked 50+ people in each, some with the logical – bread, water, batteries, candles, etc., others with beer, wine, steak, etc., clearly different agendas
• Major aftershocks one minute, people vacuuming, mowing and seemingly back to the same old routine the next

Powerful reminders

• There is never a time too trivial to tell someone you care or take the time to spend with ones important to you – like that man teaching his 10 year old to drive on my street a few days later – just missed me, but a precious moment to witness, and clearly he realized he almost never had that chance
• Losing power and communications for two days is nothing like losing everything you ever had, or ones you love – some things can never ever be replaced
• First hand experience is the only real one – watching and reading coverage afterwards was no where close to what I actually felt and witnessed, and quite often focused on whatever would capture viewers and readers but not close to the overall reality
• Be Prepared – I was never a boy scout, but what a great motto.  Think about where you live and work and know enough about events which could impact you and what you need to do so you can minimize the impact on you and those around you
• Act – when exposed to these life events, they are a reminder to not let life, good and bad, pass you by without getting into the mix – helping, caring, changing, growing, living!

What you can do to help

The links that follow will take you to places  you can donate to help those who have had their lives forever altered by natural disaster tragedies.  For those of you who have already contributed – Thank You!  For those of you who are not in a position to help financially, there are always ways you can give of your time and abilities to help those in need, seek those out.

• Google list with lots of options for helping Chile earthquake victims
• Huffington Post extensive list of Haiti earthquake aid options
• International Red Cross – allows donation to specific causes
• UNICEF – has a focus on helping children

Until next time – LIVE and make the most of your time, gifts, relationships, talents and abilities!

No, I am not suggesting that you don twelve layers of clothes and head up to the arctic circle to look at changes in sea ice, because in the end you might still walk away going, ‘that ice is now water, so what’. While the event may have provided you with confirmation of a physical process, the lack of context or meaning would still leave you without a relevant ‘impact’ sensation. So don’t worry, no need to rush off to the colder climates, you can always get a status of sea ice behavior if you are so inclined #here# (and it is actually likely to have more meaning than direct contact would have had anyway).

Instead, get your bathing suit, some sunscreen, and a couple of casual outfits and head to the beach. Now I will throw in the slight caveat that you really need to go somewhere that has some coral reef that you can either snorkel or scuba to. Even better, this likely means a vacation to a nice Caribbean island or some similar tropical destination. Recently I was able to do just this when I took a brief break and headed to Grand Cayman. This island is known for its exceptional snorkel/scuba sites, so as you can imagine I was looking forward to some neat underwater scenery. The place I was staying even claimed to have reefs just a short swim from shore.

Photo by J. Kenyon

Snorkel gear on, in the water, looking around, lots of formations, but everything looked white, was it my mask? Checked, nope indeed with a very few exceptions lots of white, very few fish, what was going on? It turns out that this section of reef had experienced a ‘bleaching’. During the course of the next few days I did get a chance to see some thriving sections of reef, but I was amazed again and again by all the reef that seemed dead. The potentially good news is that reefs can recover from bleaching to some degree if the main cause was water temperature changes and that they subside and were not too drastic. In talking to a local resident with a marine biology background I got a bit of the optimist mixed in with the science, as I am sure they want to make sure tourists keep coming to Grand Cayman. However, in investigating this topic after my trip it became clear, that sometimes does not mean always and that coral reefs are an excellent example of resilient yet delicate.

To the right I show a case of Coral Reef Bleaching with a before and after example. There are multiple items that contribute to bleaching, but temperature increases appear to be the primary culprit. This can of course be caused by a hot summer, but also through generally increasing sea temperatures. It appears these events are becoming more common and a major bleaching event in 1998 killed an estimated 16% of the world’s coral reef. This is an example of an major ecosystem that thrives in a range, but when conditions exit that range the results can be severe. Of course this begs the question – ‘Is this a tipping point example?’ – is it too late, what will it take to avoid systematic coral reef loss, is it even possible to avoid, can mother nature continually bounce back? All these things raced through my mind as I left Grand Cayman, and why I felt it was important to share with readers here.

This case was very drastic for me as I have had the pleasure of seeing vibrant and active coral reef before. For anyone who has ever seen a living reef, a bleached reef will be a startling reminder of how fragile ecosystems are. However, even if you have never seen a coral reef first hand, it is likely that through TV or a visit to an aquarium you have. My guess is even for you this would be a stunning example. Now, I am not suggesting you plan a vacation seeking an ecosystem under stress or worse, but it is through these unexpected situations that we are often most influenced and moved. So don’t avoid them when they are right in front you, use them as an excellent learning opportunity, and a call to care and hopefully do something about it.

Here are a few sources of additionally reading about this topic:

• NOAA Coral Reef Watch
• Mass Coral Bleaching
• ICRAN Threats to Reefs
• WRI Reefs at Risk

Next time we will look at uncertainty in weather forecasts, how you translate it and deal with it. This will be an initial post in a series of how these uncertainties influence forecasts and what decisions you can make even when everything is not clear. Until then, learn something new and share it, that is how we all grow!