Many of our post thus far have focused on the science of climate / climate change and the implications for us as a society and even as individuals. While we took a brief look at some potential technologies that could move us away from oil and coal in a previous post, we have yet to explore any real examples of these technologies in use today. So today will be our first exploration of many into one of these alternate energy sources and try to answer that tricky question of – is this technology viable?
Now certainly viability means different things to each one of us. As a scientist it may simply mean is it out of the computer / laboratory and into a working unit? For others it may be as simple as can I actually use it? However when it comes to replacing traditional energy sources, the burning questions is always how much more will it cost me to use it? As a baseline, coal cost is generally in the 3-5 cents per kilowatt depending on where you are located. Again, some folks would certainly be willing to pay more, but the general populous will likely want to see costs inline with what they already pay. So today we will look at a solar technology and try to determine if we are there, if we are close, or if we still have a ways.
The two images to the right show some key information we need when trying to make this assessment. The first is an estimate of where the costs are associated with traditional solar panels and projections for the future. As you can see estimates for 2009 are in the lets say 18-19 cents per kilowatt range. Not exactly where we need to be, but clearly leaps above where it was just 10 to 15 years ago and it is projected to be close to 10 cents per kilowatt by 2020. Now for some that will be good enough considering that cost from coal will continue to rise during that same time. However, without having a solid projection on coal costs and not knowing for sure how accurate the forecasts are for solar costs it is tough to say that that cost threshold would be enough to make solar the energy source of choice.
The second graphic shows us one of the two areas that will lead to lower solar costs without a major technology breakthrough, and that is higher efficiency. The more efficient the units become the lower the final costs; of course any reduction in material costs could also help in that battle as well. So let’s take a look at an actual technology in existence today and see where it stands against these measures. We will focus on
Suniva (
only because it was developed by a professor at one of my alma maters).
There goals seem simple enough, to get to a 10 cent per kilowatt product by 2015. Now that would certainly step up the pace from the graph we looked at. They currently produce in the 18-19 efficiency range, but there last development has
reached 20 % and they also hope to reach 22% by 2015.
These are all good signs, because certainly this is not the only company out there making these strides. Now, I am personal fan of solar as I think it is the closest thing to true neutral renewable energy there is, but I also know that most people are not likely to be willing to pay double or triple their current energy costs. So let’s hope that Suniva and others focused on this technology can get to that 5 to 6 cent per kilowatt range (or lower of course). I think at that point we will begin to see a major shift away from coal and to solar generated energy.
Our next renewable energy source post will focus on wind power and a new German built turbine that is now being tested in the US. But next time I am going to try and help everyone a bit in getting to the source of scientific research and how you can both get access to the published research and where to turn when you have questions about scientific topics.
This is a very interesting site to learn about research done in renewable energy. Is there any new technology that can be use in Africa?
Thank you,
Yalani
Solar Power is so cool. it is clean and renewable energy. when the cost of solar panels goes down, i think every home should be owning a mini solar power station.