This has been a common question for me over the last few weeks. For anyone who knows what I do, they all want to know if somehow weather or climate change is to some degree related to the rash of very strong earthquakes we have seen around the globe. Quickly I assure them this is not the case and try to do so without delving too deeply into the realm of thermodynamics because I get lost enough on that topic without any help. But of course prompted these inquiries prompted some questions in my mind like:
- How common is this belief?
- What would make people think this?
- Am I misinformed?
Let’s deal with these in reverse order shall we, as I certainly wanted to make sure that I was not mistaken! In looking into the topic, I could find no evidence of peer-reviewed published research that could substantiate any connection. The
United States Geological Survey (USGS) has an
Earthquake FAQ that even speaks to the point. This also does not mean that people don’t continue to investigate the possibility, but it is important to be clear on this point that there is currently no known connection between weather/climate and earthquakes.
Is this Earthquake Weather?
But if that is true, what would make one think there was a connection. For most of the people that I have talked with, it has been mostly a passing memory that most earthquake activity has taken place in the transition seasons of spring and fall. For the majority of this group there was a belief that somehow the warming / cooling of the seasons was creating conditions more conducive to earthquakes. On the surface this may seem logical enough as most of us have witnessed how cooling / warming a surface can shrink / loosen things. However the transport of surface temperatures into the planet, especially to the depth to influence earthquakes, could not occur on the time scales of days to weeks. Actually if any source has a temperature influence on the earth’s plate activity it is more likely underneath the earth’s crust in the core where temperatures exist in the range of 5000 – 6000 degrees Celsius.
A second but much smaller group of people thought there was a connection between severe weather events and/or climate changes and the recent prominent earthquakes. Most of the people making that speculation were doing exactly that, speculating. I did not hear any firm theories from this group, but at the same time it was interesting to hear people speculate on possible connections. While none of the ideas made me rush off and run any analysis, it did make me wonder how common the belief was in an Earthquake-Weather connection.
Just type in ‘Earthquake Weather’ into your favorite search engine and you can see for yourself that this is by no means a novel concept. From
Aristotle to a
100 year old New York Times articles to
current internet sources, the concept has survived the test of time. The phrase is even popular enough to have served as title of a
book and an
music album. Of course the descriptions of ‘Earthquake Weather’ often depend on where you are and while the basic idea of a
hot and sultry day has been passed around, it is most likely weather that was occurring a short time period before a memorable earthquake that stuck in a person’s mind.
Now certainly weather events could influence the surface conditions and accordingly the topside outcomes. There is even some
recent research that demonstrates that weather patterns can influence surface oriented landslide movements. The researchers suggest that these same changes in atmospheric pressure could influence earthquakes. It is key to note that they have not have proven that, but who knows, maybe someday I will be writing about real ‘earthquake weather’.
Nothing is set it stone, we learn, we grow, we increase our understanding and knowledge. So until next time, use your brain!