Really, That Many Hurricanes?
This time of year gets particularly busy for me with the start of the North Atlantic hurricane season (as you can probably tell by the lack of recent posts). However, that delay is your good fortune as all the latest predictions for this year’s hurricane season have come in, and if the majority our correct we are in for a season full of live report’s from various coastal locations by your favorite reporters.
Let’s quickly breakdown the numbers. Here are the projected ranges for the number of named storms from the different prediction groups:
- Climate Prediction Center – 14 to 23
- Colorado State University – 14.2 to 21.8
- European Center for Midrange Weather Forecasting – 18.2 to 26.4
- UK Meteorological Office – 13 to 27
So at quick glance you will notice that the US side of the Atlantic forecast teams are centered around 18-18.5, while the Europeans are coming in 20-22 range. Now last year most of the forecast team averages were above the final count with the exception of the UK Met Office, so if UK Met is on the low side this year, umm let me just say I won’t get much sleep.
Now there are a couple of other groups that forecast as well. Tropical Storm Risk, which is based in the UK, is coming in with an average at 17.7. So less than their European counterparts but generally in line with the US groups. Combined with the others, all these groups are calling for what would be called a ‘very active’ season as the average number of named storms over the last 50 years is roughly 10.5. Yeah I guess I would consider double the normal activity as very active.
However there is a group called the Weather Research Center, which I mentioned last year, that is going way out on a limb this season. Now last year their forecast was a bit low, but if you used some forecast normal distribution ranges like the other agencies their forecast would have captured the actual result. This year they are predicting 8 named storms, so they may get a bunch of new clients and respect if they get it right. If I were betting on it, not sure I would be laying down much of a wager in their direction.
This year you the readers can get into the mix. Until July 31st we will have a new poll at WSIC (over there, right side, take a look, yup there, see it?). You can enter your prediction for the number of named storms in the North Atlantic this year. I know it is a bit of a cheat since we will use the first two months of the season to come up with our oh so scientific prediction, but given that the bulk of the activity will happen after August 1st it is only a slight advantage. So let’s see if we can out predict these groups that spend hours, days, weeks and even months scrutinizing things to come up with their forecasts.
Next time we will spend some time digging into what a tropical cyclone actually is and challenges presented by what ends up being called a tropical cyclone and what isn’t.