Why Should I Care?

For anyone with experience making plans around a weather forecast, there is no doubt that you have wondered how sure the weather forecaster was about that forecast that seemed to be nothing like the day actually turned out. Of course there are many days when the forecast seems spot on (although we never seem to [...]

This time a year, those involved with forecasting tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean tend to get busy.  On June 1st we kicked off the official start of the 2009 hurricane season for the Atlantic, and while we have not had any name storms yet there was already a close call (Tropical Depression [...]

At some point we have all likely heard a phrase like ‘if a butterfly flaps its wings in <insert location>, a <insert major disaster> will occur in <insert second location>’.  Certainly Jeff Goldblum made such a phrase commonplace in his role as Dr. Ian Malcom in Jurassic Park.  With his introduction of Chaos Theory and [...]

In considering the topic of ‘climate forecast uncertainty’ it became clear that one could easily write a whole PhD thesis on the topic and if I don’t want to read that I am sure you don’t either.  At the same time there was no way to scrunch it down to one single post.  So this [...]