Why Should I Care?

Have you ever wondered what happens to your brain after spending all day for four days listening to presentations that last for 15 minutes each and are given by different speakers from all over the world?  Well, for me I usually come to the end of that four days with more questions than answers, but that can actually be a good thing.  I guess I should not expect anything different from a gathering of thousands of people who approach the fields of weather and climate from a variety career types and with very diverse objectives.  Nor does it help you have to run around a huge conference center to make sure to see presentations from 20 people I knew personally who were presenting.  So what should one really expect from a meeting that has a conference program as big as, or maybe even bigger, than a advertisement laden fashion magazine? « continue reading »

As I undertake final preparation on a presentation related to seasonal forecasting for next week’s American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, it seemed like a good time to look back at last year’s seasonal forecast for the North Atlantic Hurricane Season.  In previous posts (1st, second), we looked at what various forecasting groups were saying the 2009 hurricane season would look like.  We have now put a month between us and the official end of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, so it is time to determine how well these forecasts panned out. « continue reading »

As the hours and minutes wind down in 2009, it is a good time to take a few of those remaining minutes and reflect on the year that was and what 2010 and beyond may present.   2009 certainly has had no shortage newsworthy items – some important, some crazy, some entertaining and some that just leave me shaking my head.  However, they all seem to ring true in one aspect – actions taken impact others.  This theme may seem obvious, but I think all too often all of us tend to act without regard for the potential impact on others.

Certainly I am a firm believer in acting, as I feel it is worse to sit idly by and let things happen without caring, but I also feel it is important to act with the a proper level of understanding as to what outcomes may occur.  Hopefully during the course of this year WhyShouldICare has allowed you to do exactly that.  Going forward that will continue to be the underlying basis of what we attempt to do.

The past year has been a learning experience in the blogging world – getting my feet wet, remembering the challenges of writing meaningfully, finding time to do one more thing…the list could go on forever.  It has been rewarding just to do it, but more so in hearing from some readers that have found posts on the site to be truly useful (as that was the primary goal).  Y’all have also provided some excellent feedback in both comments to posts and in direct correspondences, thank you for taking the time to provide it.

As we step in to 2010, every effort will be made to continue with posts that allow you to think and make up your own mind but doing it with fact-based knowledge.  A few basic changes in plan for the year include:

1. A routine schedule – people like things on a regular rotation (including me).  The hope will be to put a post out on the 2nd and 4th Thursday of the month.  Often enough to give you something to ponder and allow enough time to do the research/prep needed to make the posts meaningful.
2. Guest writers – this will likely occur in the 2nd half of the year.  The goals include expanding the fields of discussion and giving some additional perspectives.
3. Utilize additional media – many folks have requested more use of pictures and graphics in conveying ideas in a post.  I will also look into the use of audio/video where appropriate.

As you enter 2010 I encourage you to take the time to make a set of goals, for how can you achieve anything if you have no idea what your objective is.  If you are not use to doing it, just set a few to start and make them for different aspects of your life – career, family, friends, personal, whatever.  There is no reward like reaching a goal.  I also suggest you encourage others and be supportive of their efforts to achieve!  To that end, here are a few new year hopes I have for everyone:

• May you care enough to act, but act with knowledge
• Remember you are never too old or too young to learn something new
• Laugh and smile, life is not meant to be serious 24×7

Now let’s all go and take on 2010!

In times when the global economy has been suffering, it is not surprising to hear links between potential negative economic impact and adjusting human behavior with respect to our planet.  But this connection was made long before we entered the recent global recessionary period.  It even made it to the big screen during a economic growth period in “The Day After Tomorrow”, in this little exchange of key characters:

Vice President Becker: And who’s going to pay the price of the Kyoto accord? It would cost the world’s economy hundreds of billions of dollars.
Jack Hall: With all due respect, Mr. Vice President, the cost of doing nothing could be even higher. Our climate is fragile. At the rate we’re burning fossil fuels and polluting the environment, the ice caps will soon disappear.
Vice President Becker: Professor, uh, Hall, our economy is every bit as fragile as the environment. Perhaps you should keep that in mind before making sensationalist claims.
Jack Hall: Well, the last chunk of ice that broke off was about the size of the state of Rhode Island. Some people might call that pretty sensational.

And while Hollywood may not always be accurate and may blow things out of proportion at times, this connection is not new and the general impression given is always one to the effect that the scale of responding to climate change or major environmental issues is so grand that the economic consequences are just to great.  Let us accept for a moment that both realms seem intertwined and fragile.  A fundamental question becomes – Can both the environment and economy benefit in a positive way from one another? « continue reading »

No doubt that you have heard, seen, read reports on last week’s ‘big news’ in the climate community.  By chance if you hadn’t, last week a climate research center in the UK had a hacking event take place that exposed a wide array of files including some not so flattering emails.  Ordinarily we try to avoid current events that focus on speculation and opinion or that don’t provide enough information to cut through the media spin/take to give a grounded basis of information for you to build upon.  However, as a professional in the climate field I have gotten lots of inquiries about this story and the most intriguing point for me is the factor of trust.  So, can you, can you still trust climate scientists? « continue reading »

Having witnessed firsthand the devastation of a river flood this past month, it seemed an appropriate time to look into an area of science that can sometimes be very confusing – probability of prediction and its fluid nature.  In this case we will focus on what a 100 year flood translates into, but another common example you may be familiar with is the XX% chance of precipitation in a weather forecast.  In chatting with folks after the flood event the two most common questions I heard were – ‘Does a 100 year flood only happen every 100 years?’ and ‘What does term 100 year flood really mean?’  What I found particularly interesting was almost everyone from which I heard these inquiries had some idea of what they thought it meant but also had a meaningful level of doubt that their interpretation was correct.  So, what does it mean? « continue reading »

Over the weekend I saw a line in a news feed that relayed some of the following key phrases – ‘NASA scientist’ … ‘El Nino’ … ‘Minimal Impact’.  Of course at the time I was in the midst of something and did not have time to pull up the article and read the details.  However, over the next couple of days the more I thought about it, the harder it was for me to believe that a NASA scientist would make such a bold statement.  I started to wonder if this might not be a good case of the news cycle we laughed a bit about back in August, simply a bit of glorifying some key aspect of a news release to a point where it no longer was recognizable. « continue reading »

Again and again I have reiterated the importance of taking some self responsibility in making sure you are getting to a base truth about stories you are exposed to via your favorite media outlets.  At the same time I know following that advice is not always simple as it sounds given that quite often the sourced research is published in journals that you just don’t happen upon in your local bookstore or newsstand.  However, there are a variety of routes you can take in getting access to these publications and the process may not be as hard as you think.  But before we walk down the path of how, let’s stop for a moment and consider the why.  Isn’t the why always more interesting anyway? « continue reading »

Since our last post about seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones, one of the organizations (the UK Meteorology Office) mentioned in that post has come out with their official forecast.  The UK Meteorology Office, or simply Met Office, has made a prediction that is substantially different than the other forecasts to date.  Traditionally the Met Office is the last to issue their forecast each season, but often their forecast will be in line (but not always) with the other agencies we discussed last time.  However, this forecast seems to speak to the very question posed previously – Are Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Predictions Useful? « continue reading »